State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #490
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Nathan Lambert and Sebastian Raschka are machine learning researchers, engineers, and educators. Nathan is the post-training lead at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of The RLHF Book. Sebastian Raschka is the author of Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch) and Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch).
Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep490-sb
See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.
*Transcript:*
https://lexfridman.com/ai-sota-2026-transcript
*Correction:*
Here's an updated image listing a collection of recent open & closed AI models with some improvements & fixes:
https://lexfridman.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ai_models_2025.png
*CONTACT LEX:*
*Feedback* - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey
*AMA* - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama
*Hiring* - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring
*Other* - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact
*EPISODE LINKS:*
Nathan's X: https://x.com/natolambert
Nathan's Blog: https://interconnects.ai
Nathan's Website: https://natolambert.com
Nathan's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@natolambert
Nathan's GitHub: https://github.com/natolambert
Nathan's Book: https://rlhfbook.com
Sebastian's X: https://x.com/rasbt
Sebastian's Blog: https://magazine.sebastianraschka.com
Sebastian's Website: https://sebastianraschka.com
Sebastian's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@SebastianRaschka
Sebastian's GitHub: https://github.com/rasbt
Sebastian's Books:
Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch): https://manning.com/books/build-a-large-language-model-from-scratch
Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch): https://manning.com/books/build-a-reasoning-model-from-scratch
*SPONSORS:*
To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts:
*Box:* Intelligent content management platform.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/box-ep490-sb
*Quo:* Phone system (calls, texts, contacts) for businesses.
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*UPLIFT Desk:* Standing desks and office ergonomics.
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*Perplexity:* AI-powered answer engine.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/perplexity-ep490-sb
*OUTLINE:*
0:00 - Introduction
1:57 - China vs US: Who wins the AI race?
10:38 - ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning?
21:38 - Best AI for coding
28:29 - Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs
40:08 - Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019
48:05 - AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding?
1:04:12 - How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training
1:37:18 - Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs
1:58:11 - Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research
2:21:03 - Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks)
2:24:49 - Silicon Valley bubble
2:28:46 - Text diffusion models and other new research directions
2:34:28 - Tool use
2:38:44 - Continual learning
2:44:06 - Long context
2:50:21 - Robotics
2:59:31 - Timeline to AGI
3:06:47 - Will AI replace programmers?
3:25:18 - Is the dream of AGI dying?
3:32:07 - How AI will make money?
3:36:29 - Big acquisitions in 2026
3:41:01 - Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta
3:53:35 - Manhattan Project for AI
4:00:10 - Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters
4:08:15 - Future of human civilization
*PODCAST LINKS:*
- Podcast Website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr
- Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8
- RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/
- Podcast Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4
- Clips Channel: https://www.youtube.com/lexclips
*SOCIAL LINKS:*
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Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep490-sb
See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc.
*Transcript:*
https://lexfridman.com/ai-sota-2026-transcript
*Correction:*
Here's an updated image listing a collection of recent open & closed AI models with some improvements & fixes:
https://lexfridman.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ai_models_2025.png
*CONTACT LEX:*
*Feedback* - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey
*AMA* - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama
*Hiring* - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring
*Other* - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact
*EPISODE LINKS:*
Nathan's X: https://x.com/natolambert
Nathan's Blog: https://interconnects.ai
Nathan's Website: https://natolambert.com
Nathan's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@natolambert
Nathan's GitHub: https://github.com/natolambert
Nathan's Book: https://rlhfbook.com
Sebastian's X: https://x.com/rasbt
Sebastian's Blog: https://magazine.sebastianraschka.com
Sebastian's Website: https://sebastianraschka.com
Sebastian's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@SebastianRaschka
Sebastian's GitHub: https://github.com/rasbt
Sebastian's Books:
Build a Large Language Model (From Scratch): https://manning.com/books/build-a-large-language-model-from-scratch
Build a Reasoning Model (From Scratch): https://manning.com/books/build-a-reasoning-model-from-scratch
*SPONSORS:*
To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts:
*Box:* Intelligent content management platform.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/box-ep490-sb
*Quo:* Phone system (calls, texts, contacts) for businesses.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/quo-ep490-sb
*UPLIFT Desk:* Standing desks and office ergonomics.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/uplift_desk-ep490-sb
*Fin:* AI agent for customer service.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/fin-ep490-sb
*Shopify:* Sell stuff online.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep490-sb
*CodeRabbit:* AI-powered code reviews.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/coderabbit-ep490-sb
*LMNT:* Zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/lmnt-ep490-sb
*Perplexity:* AI-powered answer engine.
Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/perplexity-ep490-sb
*OUTLINE:*
0:00 - Introduction
1:57 - China vs US: Who wins the AI race?
10:38 - ChatGPT vs Claude vs Gemini vs Grok: Who is winning?
21:38 - Best AI for coding
28:29 - Open Source vs Closed Source LLMs
40:08 - Transformers: Evolution of LLMs since 2019
48:05 - AI Scaling Laws: Are they dead or still holding?
1:04:12 - How AI is trained: Pre-training, Mid-training, and Post-training
1:37:18 - Post-training explained: Exciting new research directions in LLMs
1:58:11 - Advice for beginners on how to get into AI development & research
2:21:03 - Work culture in AI (72+ hour weeks)
2:24:49 - Silicon Valley bubble
2:28:46 - Text diffusion models and other new research directions
2:34:28 - Tool use
2:38:44 - Continual learning
2:44:06 - Long context
2:50:21 - Robotics
2:59:31 - Timeline to AGI
3:06:47 - Will AI replace programmers?
3:25:18 - Is the dream of AGI dying?
3:32:07 - How AI will make money?
3:36:29 - Big acquisitions in 2026
3:41:01 - Future of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta
3:53:35 - Manhattan Project for AI
4:00:10 - Future of NVIDIA, GPUs, and AI compute clusters
4:08:15 - Future of human civilization
*PODCAST LINKS:*
- Podcast Website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast
- Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr
- Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8
- RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/
- Podcast Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4
- Clips Channel: https://www.youtube.com/lexclips
*SOCIAL LINKS:*
- X: https://x.com/lexfridman
- Instagram: https://instagram.com/lexfridman
- TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@lexfridman
- LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/lexfridman
- Facebook: https://facebook.com/lexfridman
- Patreon: https://patreon.com/lexfridman
- Telegram: https://t.me/lexfridman
- Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/lexfridman